Will the LDF retain its average vote share in Kerala?
Power changing hands was a four-decade norm in Kerala until the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPI(M) led Left Democratic Front (LDF) managed to buck the trend in 2021 elections by retaining power. A loss this time, therefore should not be really surprising in a state prone to anti-incumbency, even though it will mean that communists, for the first time in 50 years, would not be in a state government in India. What will be more critical, however, is whether the LDF manages to retain its close to 45% vote share. Its lowest vote share, in any election since 1980 has been 43.35%. This matters a lot because a significant erosion in the LDF’s vote share could mean that some of its core voters have left it for the BJP, which polled 16.8% votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
