For the first time in the last six decades, China is facing population decline as a result of its infamous one-child policy, skewed sex ratio, and decreased fertility rate.  Its impact will be felt around the world.

Isn’t it a little hard to believe that China, known to be the world’s most populous country, is now grappling with a shrinking and aging population? Let me tell you that according to official data revealed in January 2023, China’s population dropped by 850,000 from the previous year to 1.4118 billion.

 Although China’s birth rate had been slowing down for some years, this marked the first population decline since 1961. Its age-dependency ratio, i.e., the ratio of dependent and retired people to the working-age population, has also increased from 37.12% in 2010 to 44.86% in 2022. To top it all, China has to face all these while it is still a middle-income country! In short, China is getting old before it gets rich. 

So, what caused China’s population to shrink? Among various factors involved, China’s population drop is mainly the far-reaching consequence of its one-child policy introduced in 1980, which for 36 years until 2016, restricted couples to only have one child. It enforced strict family planning measures including fines for violators and forced abortions. This led to female infanticide because of the regressive patriarchal preference for boys, leaving almost 35 million more men than women; hence the deep -set gender inequality, decreased fertility rate,and  changed ideologies toward marriage and family among Chinese youth. Moreover, high child-rearing costs, and traditional gender roles expecting Chinese women to shoulder most child-care responsibilities, are making them unwilling to have children.

Other factors including increased death rate due to Covid-19 pandemic, and decades of net negative migration, meaning more people leave the country than arrive, can be blamed for China’s population decline.

Now you must be wondering why China’s crisis would be our concern! Would it have a global impact? And the answer is, ‘yes’.

China being the centre of the global supply chain, its population decline in the long run can send ripple effects across the world economy. Its decreasing workforce means increasing labour cost which will lead to higher consumer prices outside China, potentially worsening inflation in Europeans countries and USA that depend heavily on imported Chinese goods. Rising labour costs in China has already prompted many companies to shift their factories in lower paying countries. This can benefit many developing countries in Asia, Africa and South America to improve manufacturing operations globally.

India can be the biggest winner here, which recently gained its place as the world’s most populous country. Its economy is booming as a global market with an efficient and expanding workforce. Beating China as the world’s most populous country can also boost India’s claim of becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

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