When it comes to elections different perspectives come up. A plethora of views is expressed but my few days of research and surveys tell me that this time around, the state of West Bengal will see unpredictability. -West Bengal – Mamata
Even if we shun the clandestine BJP-TMC setting, voters will have the final say. There are various issues that matter and among them corruption of the ruling dispensation stands tall.
But to write off Mamata Banerjee would be an uphill task. Time and again she has been countering challenges ahead of the polls. -West Bengal – Mamata
As a political observer Pradipta says, “You never know. All these numbers game can change because a major chunk of the electorate still trusts the lady because of the work she has done in the rural belt.”
As senior Congress leader Arunava Ghosh says, “It is in TMC’s favour because the Opposition do not have the wherewithal to reach out to voters.” -West Bengal – Mamata
BJP’s Shamik Bhattacharya however adds that BJP’s numbers will go up though Ghosh disagrees.
Lack of a strong opposition has been a bane for West Bengal for years which allowed the Left Front to rule for 34 years before Mamata entered the fray. Despite facing challenges, she continued to put up a fight and even launched her own party walking out on the Congress.
“She made it count and was able to put up an alternative to the statures of Jyoti Basu and later Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and yes the Nandigram and Singur issues gave her an impetus,” says a BJP supporter Partha Dasgupta.
In West Bengal it is basically Modi vs Didi and the absence of talismanic local leader is helping Mamata.
Unlike in other states where the Modi factor worked, in West Bengal local issues matter and so do local face. BJP doesn’t have a credible local face and that is the reason cricketers and filmstars like Sourav Ganguly and Mithun Chakraborty are approached to challenge Mamata.
It is true that TMC is all about Mamata and she still holds control over the pulse of the people.
She dared to say no the INDIA alliance in her state over Congress MP Adhir Chowdhury’s barbs at her. Like the BJP, Congress too lacks a credible face and surprisingly even national Congress leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra are yet to hit the campaign trail in the state.
And they also know that antagonizing Didi would be at their own peril.
Even during the last Assembly polls where the TMC faced challenges from BJP which spiked its numbers to over 75 Congress was mild towards Mamata.
“How can Sandeshkhali matter? Who is interested? You tell me,” asks Ghosh.
About the INDIA alliance, it is a conglomerate of contradictions where the Congress, Left Front and TMC don’t see eye to eye on several fronts.
Left on the other hand, is struggling to restore the confidence of the people in them. Having been a witness to the way they have been drawing funds canvassing from door to door, it is a pitiable sight.
A party that called the shots has no face like former CMs Basu and Bhattacharjee.
Old horses are still hanging around and the new faces have failed to make it count. A mere Brigade rally doesn’t really matter. Young leaders like Satarup Ghosh and Meenakshi Mukherjee are yet to make a mark as trustworthy Left Front leaders.
Their sole strategy to oppose Mamata and BJP is not potent enough to impress upon the masses and the classes.
Yet we dare to say that these elections could swing either way because BJP has the money power as a Left leader Saswati Mondal says.
Believe it or not, graft cases may have an effect but again in BJP there is a lack of a strong contender to challenge Didi.
TMC turncoat Suvendu Adhikari keeps on hurling personal attacks on the Banerjees but he himself is embroiled in the Narada scam and his credibility is on the negative side.
For some reason or so, experts feel sidelining former state chief Dilip Ghosh was a mistake. It was under his leadership that BJP won 18 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 and close to 80 Assembly seats in the 2021 state polls.
He has a strong RSS base and never cribs publicly. In an interview to a portal he said he was happy at the responsibilities given to him yet there are issues that hurt him.
Given the current circumstances, TMC still has the edge but a lack of strong opposition may give BJP a leverage to increase its tally.
Several TMC leaders who left the party in the past have come back. Yes there is this old vs new theory under the aegis of Mamata’s nephew Abhishek Banerjee in the contention but ultimately it is Mamata who has the final say and nobody would be audacious enough to challenge her.
No matter what Congress and Left say they are reluctant partners forced to be together. In the past their collaboration didn’t yield results and it is unlikely they can put Mamata on the mat this time too.
Mind you, West Bengal is unlike other states where the flag of communal tensions flies atop. People know that letting BJP in would fan religious fanaticism and perhaps only a disappointment with Mamata can give the BJP some edge amid the clandestine under the table dealing rumours.
No matter what people say, Mamata is a much taller leader than Arvind Kejriwal and Hemant Soren both of whom who are incarcerated.
Attempting to arrest Mamata over scams could boomerang and the sympathy wave would benefit the ruling party in the state.
The Narendra Modi-Amit Shah jodi would repeatedly campaign in Bengal but to oust Mamata would be like day dreaming.
Despite the corruption charges against her party leaders she asks for votes for herself. “Give me the vote. I am the candidate in all the seats. Her oratory skills despite the gift of gaffe make an impact on people.
However despite all this, it is the voters who have the final say and you never know which way they will swing. It has happened in the past and it can happen again.
This is the reason why one can say that these elections will be very unpredictable. Modi matters but may not as much as Mamata despite allegations galore against her party.
Fingers crossed!
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