For the Congress, exit poll projections released on Wednesday evening for four states and a UT told a tale of regions voting quite differently across India. In the southern states, the party appears headed for its most consequential electoral revival in years — with Kerala poised to hand it a government and Tamil Nadu consolidating its position as a partner of the DMK. Puducherry is not as pretty for the DMK-Congress, though.
And further north and east, in Assam and West Bengal, the numbers tell an even grimmer story, in which the Congress remains a distant second at best, and near-irrelevant at worst.
Kerala flips to Cong-led UDF, says projections
The standout number for the Congress is Kerala.
Three major agencies that have released projections agreed, that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is set to return to power, ending Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s bid for an unprecedented third consecutive term for the Left Democratic Front (LDF).
Axis My India has the most bullish projection for the UDF, giving it 78–90 seats in the 140-member assembly. People’s Pulse projects the alliance at 75–85, while Matrize is the most conservative of the three at 70–75. All three, however, place the UDF comfortably above the majority mark of 71.
The LDF is projected at 55–65 seats across these three agencies. That would be a significant slide from its 99-seat haul in 2021.
The BJP-led NDA, despite significant investment in the state and fielding former Union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar as its lead face, is projected at just 0–5 seats across agencies. Five, though singular in digits, would be a big number for the BJP. It drew a blank last time.
Kerala recorded a voter turnout of 78.23 per cent on April 9 — the highest in the state since 1987 — and the surge appears to have broken in the UDF’s favour, if exit polls are correct.
Congress leader VD Satheesan is the frontrunner to become the chief ministers if the Congress wins indeed on May 4.
Tamil Nadu: Comfortable playing second fiddle
In Tamil Nadu, the Congress is part of the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance, which all agencies project as heading back to power comfortably.
Matrize gives the DMK+ alliance 122–132 seats, while People’s Pulse puts it higher at 125–145. The majority mark is 118.
The Congress’s own tally within the alliance was not broken out separately by the pollsters yet, but the party contested about two dozen seats.
A DMK win consolidates the Congress’s southern flank and keeps the INDIA bloc’s most reliable state-level partnership intact. For the party’s national leadership, a Stalin second term is nearly as good as a Congress government — it keeps the BJP locked out of Tamil Nadu for another five years.
In Puducherry, where largely the same parties contest, exit polls give the NDA a clear advantage in the UT’s 30-seat assembly, with People’s Pulse projecting the ruling NDA combine at 15–19 seats and Axis My India even more bullish at 16–20.
AINRC’s N Rangaswamy, contesting from both Thattanchavady and Mangalam, is well-placed for a fifth term as chief minister as a trusted senior partner of the BJP in Puducherry.
The Congress-DMK alliance is projected at 6–11 seats across agencies — a modest improvement on 2021, but well short of the majority mark of 16.
Assam: A distant second amid Hindutva surge
The news is considerably less cheerful as one moves further north-east.
In Assam, where the Himanta Biswa Sarma-led regime is looking at a third term for the BJP-led NDA, the Congress is projected to fall well short of mounting a challenge even.
Axis My India gives the Congress 24–36 seats against the NDA’s 88–100 out of 126. Matrize projects Congress at 25–32, and Peoples Pulse at 22–26 — all against an NDA tally that ranges from 68–100 depending on the agency; in all cases above the majority mark of 64.
The Congress had pinned hopes on Gaurav Gogoi — son of the late former CM Tarun Gogoi — as a generational reset for the party’s campaign.
Bengal: Near irrelevance
If Assam is disappointing, West Bengal is damning for the Congress.
Across all four agencies that have released Bengal projections, the Congress is either not projected to win a single seat or is given a maximum of 3–5. People’s Pulse gives the Congress 1–3, Poll Diary projects 3–5, while Matrize and P-Marq show it at zero.
The battle in Bengal, on all available evidence, has narrowed to a straight TMC-BJP fight, with the Congress and Left Front virtually wiped out.
The irony is that Bengal’s exit polls are themselves dramatically split. People’s Pulse projects a TMC landslide of 177–187, while Matrize, P-Marq and Poll Diary give the BJP a narrow majority. In either scenario, Congress is not on the scene, having chosen to ally neither with the Left nor with the TMC.