Industry experts indicate that while high prices may weigh on volumes, overall demand in value terms could remain stable, supported by more planned and intentional purchases.
Nitesh Jain, co-founder of Ethera (Bluestone-backed lab-grown jewellery brand), said demand this year is expected to remain steady to slightly stronger than last year, with consumers focusing more on design, value, and long-term wearability rather than traditional weight-based buying.
Lightweight jewellery, coins, and contemporary everyday pieces may see strong traction, alongside exchange-led purchases.
Echoing this, Parag Shah, CEO of KISNA Diamond & Gold Jewellery, noted that demand remains steady despite price volatility, with transactions concentrated in the ₹60,000–₹80,000 range. He said this reflects a more value-conscious mindset rather than any pullback in overall demand, with consumers continuing to engage actively with the festival.
Retailers are also cautiously optimistic about growth.
Saumen Bhaumik, managing director at CaratLane, said the company expects positive double-digit growth, driven by improving sentiment and a shift towards planned purchases. He highlighted an emerging “barbell” trend, where demand may concentrate at both ends—affordable lightweight designs and high-value solitaire-led jewellery.
Similarly, Neil Sonawala, managing director at Zen Diamond India, said sales could see a 15–20% uptick compared to last year, supported by demand from younger buyers and continued interest in premium pieces above ₹1 lakh. This may indicate a move towards more considered buying rather than impulse purchases.
At PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery, CEO Amit Modak noted that consumers may view certified natural diamonds as both adornment and a store of value, reinforcing their appeal during auspicious buying occasions.
Old gold exchange is emerging as a key lever for managing costs. Shah said exchange-led buying could account for 22–25% of payments at KISNA this season, as consumers look to offset high prices by leveraging existing holdings.
Alternative segments such as lab-grown diamonds are also expected to gain traction.
Ricky Vasandani, CEO of Solitario, said demand in this category could surge sharply, as buyers look for “smart luxury” options that offer larger carats at relatively lower prices amid high gold rates.
Traditional jewellers are already seeing early signs of momentum.
C Vinod Hayagriv, Managing Director, C Krishniah Chetty Group said same-store sales have risen in the run-up to the festival, with demand across gold, diamonds, silverware, and lab-grown jewellery.
He expects this trend to support a better performance than last year.
Despite the rise of digital platforms, offline retail is likely to remain dominant due to the trust factor and the need for a tactile experience. However, online channels may play a bigger role in influencing purchase journeys, with consumers increasingly blending research and buying across platforms.
Chetan Thadeshwar, Chairman & Managing Director, Shringar House of Mangalsutra, added that demand may shift towards design-led, versatile jewellery, with even traditional categories evolving into everyday wear.