On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold for April delivery hovered around ₹1.60 lakh per 10 grams, while silver for May delivery traded near ₹2.63 lakh per kilogram, supported by fresh positions and strategic buying.
Here are the key factors shaping market movements today:
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
Escalating conflict involving United States, Israel, and Iran is driving investor caution. According to Augmont, the ongoing crisis is affecting both energy markets and precious metals. While gold traditionally acts as a safe haven, short-term volatility has seen profit booking and liquidity-raising measures, moderating immediate gains in India.
Rising oil prices and inflation concerns
Crude oil has surged past $100 per barrel, partly due to potential supply disruptions in strategic routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. High oil prices are intensifying inflation fears globally. Augmont notes that energy markets are currently the primary channel for pricing geopolitical risk, which has partially displaced gold as a direct hedge in the near term.
US Dollar strength and interest-rate expectations
A stronger US dollar has pressured precious metals, making them costlier for holders of other currencies.
Justin Khoo, Senior Market Analyst – APAC at VT Markets, highlights that the US Dollar Index is testing key resistance levels, and its strength is supporting USDJPY while influencing commodities. Investors are also watching upcoming US CPI data, expected at 2.5% year-on-year, which could shape Federal Reserve policy and near-term rate expectations. Higher rates typically act as a headwind for gold.
Domestic demand and supply dynamics
In India, physical demand remains moderate. Traders are reportedly offering discounts below international benchmarks due to rising shipping and insurance costs, while inventories remain elevated after heavy imports earlier in the year.
These factors have limited fresh domestic buying in gold, while silver continues to attract investment flows, aided by industrial demand in solar, EV, and AI infrastructure, according to Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director, RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.
Structural and technical outlook
Experts see gold and silver in a structurally strong uptrend.
Augmont highlights that key technical support lies near $5,000 an ounce for gold and $80 an ounce for silver, levels likely to attract buyers on any corrective dips.
Volatility and market sentiment
While geopolitical headlines and US economic data are keeping short-term volatility elevated, broader market stress indicators remain contained. VIX and other derivatives measures show moderate moves, suggesting caution rather than panic. Market participants are balancing safe-haven demand, energy-driven inflation, and monetary policy expectations, resulting in a constructive bias for both metals over the medium term.